Barao is an absolute beast and completely dominated when these two first met at UFC 148. Barao in his WEC/UFC stint has finished five of his fights, including his two UFC Interim Bantamweight title defences.
However Faber is a warrior. It come to light that he fought Barao last time out with a broken rib for the best part of four rounds. That still wasn’t enough to be finished by the Brazilian.
Barao improves each fight but Faber has been finished just twice in his whole career. From the last outing, I don’t think it’ll be a third time
Barao via Decision – even money with PaddyPower
Aldo since joining Zuffa has finished nine of his fights, including his T/KO of Chang Sung Jung. Lamas on the other hand has tasted defeat twice at the hands of a T/KO loss to Danny Castillo and Yuri Alcantara.
Yet, they were both a lightweight and he is a perfect 4-0 at 145lbs, with wins over solid fighters in Cub Swanson, Hatsu Hioki and most recently Eric Koch.
As Aldo gets older (now 27) his weight cut becomes more difficult, as displayed in the Hominick fight. I think that Aldo gets the job done very easily, however on the judges scorecards and 3/1 is a juicy price to win via decision compared a slim 8/15 to win via T/KO
Aldo via Decision – 3/1 with PaddyPower
This should be an excellent fight and probably the hardest to bet on across the card I think.
Overeem looked good in my opinion despite losing his last two. He won the first two rounds against Antonio Silva and was in control when facing Travis Browne. Unfortunately he got caught…twice.
He has no fear of getting caught by Mir, who hasn’t finished anyone via strikes since Noguiera at UFC 92. Mir himself has been finished by strikes twice in his last three.
Overeems kickboxing is probably the best Mir’s fought. Mir was finished by Brandon Vera, who’s style is fairly similar to The Reems. I think Overeem finishes it by T/KO.
Overeem via T/KO- 8/15 with PaddyPower
The flyweights always come to fight.
Lineker has won three on the bounce, all by T/KO. Bagautinov has finished four of his last five by the same measure.
The deciding factor is Bagautinov’s wrestling. Will he choose to stand with Lineker or use his elite grappling to keep Lineker on the mat? Despite them both finishing fights lately, they’ve both fought fairly average opponents. I think that this one goes to the judges.
The fight to go over 2.5 rounds – even money with Bet365
~ Win Accumulator ~
Renan Barao @ 4/11 – won easily last time and 4/11 is an excellent acca booster as it is pretty much a certainty.
John Makdessi @ 8/13 – currently on a three fight win streak including veteran Sam Stout and Rene Forte who defeated Terry Etim if you remember. He meets a relatively unexposed Alan Patrick. This is a step up in class for Patrick.
Al Iquinta @ 2/5 – Much like the above, Iquinta meets probably a less exposed opponent in Kevin Lee. Iquinta’s performance against Ryan Couture was impressive and matured in his last two.
Tom Watson @4/7- Most people remember Nick Catone for his split decision loss to Mark Munoz. Catone has looked terrible lately and I think Watson has met some very good opponents lately.
Rashid Magomedov@4/11 – former M1 Global welterweight champion who’s UFC debut is being very overlooked. His last opponent beat Paul Daley in his last fight in November.
Accumulator pay 6.62/1 with Bet365